An introduction to three horizons
The three horizons model plays a big role in how we design the futures workshops we run with clients. It’s a simple way of considering different possibilities and different future states, and allowing a diverse number of contributors to come together to create a plan when change is needed.
Here’s a very quick introduction to it.
The Three Horizons model was developed by a whole range of people, practitioners and organisations including the United Nations and UK Government. There’s a list of further reading at the end of this summary.
It’s a useful method to help teams anticipate and adapt to external changes. Organisations operate in an increasingly complex environment with many political, economic, social, cultural and technological forces shifting, interacting and colliding.
It can be difficult for organisations to create a vision of the future that people feel is worth planning for.
Three Horizons is a model that connects the present with desired futures and helps to show the divergent possibilities which may emerge as a result of conflict between the status quo today and these imagined futures (Curry, 2008).
It has been applied in a whole range of situations where disruptive change is happening or is necessary, for example in debates around climate change, energy security and how to move away from fossil fuels towards renewable. It is a useful model, especially if you’re planning organisational change, digital transformation or responding to disruptive events.
The best way of understanding it is to see it visualised. The diagram below shows three co-existing states of the same system (let’s call it an organisation) over time plotted against their strategic value (e.g. how valuable each state is to the goal of the organisation as time goes on).
Each state is called a horizon. Let’s take each in turn…
Horizon 1 = the current prevailing system as it continues into the future, which loses fit over time as the external environment changes.
Horizon 3 = ideas about the future of an organisation which haven’t gained traction or popular support yet but have the potential to displace the 1st horizon as a more effective way of doing things in the future. In the diagram there is only one 3rd Horizon, but in reality there may be many different visions of the future - especially in the early stages of planning for the future.
Horizon 2 = this is the messy middle, where 1st and 3rd Horizons clash. It is a space of transition, different possibilities and conflict. It is usually quite unstable and leadership is required to find consensus and an agreed path forward.
The model is especially useful
when change is likely to be disruptive rather than building up slowly over time
when there is conflict between groups with different objectives and vested interests
when there is an entrepreneurial moment to be seized
It allows teams to create rich descriptions and models for the future, and to have good collaborative conversations about them. We use it in the background of our workshops and translate it into some very simple questions for strategic thinking, responses and planning. In no particular order;
Where are you now? Have you reached your peak?
Are you surrounded by opportunity that you can’t chose from, or trapped in a less-than-optimal situation?
What assumptions or beliefs serve you well?
Which assumptions or beliefs do you think might have to change?
What do you think is going to be different in the outside world next year? In three years? Five?
What ideas already exist within the organisation?
What signals can you see from the outside world?
What do you need to respond effectively to those signals?
Who needs convincing?
Why is the Three Horizons Model effective?
It helps teams to create an energising view of the future, and understand its relationship to the present
It is a low-conflict way of addressing resistance to change
It prevents authority bias and HIPPO-ISM (the way people defer to the most senior person’s opinion, often with disastrous consequences)
It gives equal voice to all contributors in a group
It allows groups to explore ideas and futures that may have previously been seen as unpopular or not-feasible.
It helps businesses to seize opportunities before their competitors.
It helps create purpose when the environment around you seems chaotic.
Get in touch if you’d like to talk about a futures workshop.
Reading if you’d like to explore Three Horizons in depth.
The first version of Three Horizons was published in The Alchemy of Growth by Merhad Baghai, Stephen Coley, and David White (1999, New York, Orion).
An early application in considering the future of transport in the UK between 2006 and 2055 by Bill Sharpe and Anthony Hodgson Technology Forward Look (2006, London, Foresight Programme). This work created the idea that the horizons exist in parallel at any one time, but with different levels of social and public influence, rather than being consecutive waves of change.
A really useful summary of Three Horizons, which I’ve quoted extensively here, by Andrew Curry and Anthony Hodgson ‘Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy’. (August 2008, Journal of Futures Studies 13(1): 1-20)
On Hippos - We are (all) the champions: The effect of status in the implementation of innovations Balazs Szatmari (2016, Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Deepening Futures with System Structures by Tony Hodgson and Bill Sharpe (2007, London, Wiley).
